There’s a long way to go yet in Poland’s presidential election — but Sunday’s first round was a good day for candidates on the right and far right and it flashed a big red warning signal for the moderate government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate for the Tusk government, narrowly won the first round of the presidential election. His victory in the run-off is, however, uncertain.

T HE CHEERS at Rafal Trzaskowski’s election party on May 18th sounded unconvincing. So was his margin of victory. The liberal mayor of Warsaw came away with 31.4% of the vote in the first round of Poland’s presidential election,