A range of tariffs on U.S. imports has been enacted or considered recently. Trade tariffs can potentially affect price inflation for consumption and investment goods. Estimates suggest that the impact ...

Using a two-country monetary union framework with financial frictions, we quantify the efficacy of targeted asset purchases, ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed ...

The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy rapidly between 2021 and 2023. In addition, a weekly proxy federal funds rate shows that markets perceived the policy stance as tightening significantly ...

Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic ...

Remarks as prepared for delivery. The day after the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, just a few months back, a man came up to me in the dry cleaner. He told me that he and his ...

The federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP is nearing its historical high from World War II. This ratio fell sharply over the three decades after World War II due to a primary surplus, rapid economic ...